The Real Office-Market Risk From AI Isn’t Job Loss. It’s Headcount Uncertainty

AI is starting to reshape office markets across Australia and New Zealand, but the impact won’t be uniform. It won’t automatically mean empty office towers. Current research points to slower employment growth rather than wholesale job destruction, while the effect on individual office markets will depend heavily on local AI exposure, the ability to capture new technology-led growth, and the amount of new space entering the market.

The more immediate challenge for occupiers may be uncertainty. If businesses can no longer confidently predict which teams will grow, which functions will shrink, or how many people they will employ three or five years from now, committing to fixed office space for long periods becomes harder to justify.

By Grant Philipp, Founder and CEO of Office Hub and Property Hub

AI could remove a meaningful amount of white-collar employment growth from Australia and New Zealand over the next five years, and that’s raising an obvious question for the office market: what happens to demand if businesses need fewer people to produce the same amount of work?

Current research from JLL and Deloitte suggests the answer is more complicated than “fewer jobs, fewer offices.” AI is expected to slow employment growth and reshape the mix of roles businesses need, but the impact on office markets will vary significantly by city.

The bigger shift may be uncertainty. If businesses can no longer confidently predict which teams will grow, which functions will shrink, or how many people they will employ three or five years from now, committing to fixed office space for long periods becomes a much harder decision.

That makes AI not just a labour-market story, but a leasing one.